Curse

gerg-nad · Sep 23, 2008, 09:13 PM // 21:13

Getting kinda groggy from all this alcohol farming, but here are the results

The following is an analysis of a set of HM rapter farm data set. A sample of 80 runs was taken with the following summary statistics:
Variable N N* Mean StDev
Kills 80 0 32.150 2.159
Grog 80 0 2.363 1.478
Golds 80 0 0.5125 0.7955
AS Recharge 80 0 0.8750 0.3328

Kills is how many rapters were killed, grog is how many grog dropped, golds is how many golds dropped and AS recharge is how many times the Air of Superiority rechared after the boss was killed. As you can see the average number of kills per run was 32.15 and grog were about 2.36.

The following is a plot of the Grog drop over time for this series of 80 runs. The black line is the proportion of grog drop and the red line is the statistical control limits (the upper one varies slightly based on number of kills), so it shows a relatively stable process with an average grog drop rate of 7.35% per kill.

Grog Drop Rate

Based on this series of data the95% confidence interval for the grog drop rate is [0.063695, 0.084256] with the average rate at 0.0735.
Test and CI for One Proportion
Sample X N Sample p 95% CI
1 189 2572 0.073484 (0.063695, 0.084256)

The following plots shows that for any particular run the grog drop vs probability for a 33 Kill run. The black line is the cummulative probability and the red line probability density (point estimate). It shows the likelihood of drops of any particular run of 33 kills and shows that the most kills per run to expect is 7 and it is not that unusual to get 0.

For Golds, including, Black Dye the following shows the drop proportion of the series of 80 runs:

The gold contorl chart above shows some unusual points, 8 and 11, which may suggest that the process may have been unstable during that time, (possibly a data error), or the estimate of gold drop rate is incorrect.
The 95% confidence interval for gold drops is show below with the most likey estimate as 0.0159 (~1.6%).
Test and CI for One Proportion
Sample X N Sample p 95% CI
1 41 2572 0.015941 (0.011463, 0.021564)

The following is the probability plot, given this estimated drop rate and a run of 33 rapters.

So based on the data I have gathered for golds the most likely event for a single run of 33 kills, would be 0 at about 58% of the time. Getting 1 or less golds for a run of 33 kills is about 90% likely. Getting a gold drop of 4 and 5 or more in one run is very unlikely.

So these are the facts I have thoroughly gathered. In God we trust the rest bring data.

komma · Sep 23, 2008, 09:26 PM // 21:26

with the raptor farm, it doesnt help that alot of them are dying at the same time, that really hinders drop rates.

Nechtan Thaumaturge · Sep 23, 2008, 09:39 PM // 21:39

That's simply gorgeous. It's going to take awhile for me to digest this, but it's quite a commendable effort you've made. Good work!

CE Devilman · Sep 23, 2008, 09:45 PM // 21:45

Time Stamp makes all the outcomes unique.

Jesus saves! The rest of you take full damage.

MisterB · Sep 23, 2008, 09:53 PM // 21:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by komma

with the raptor farm, it doesnt help that alot of them are dying at the same time, that really hinders drop rates.

Event items are excluded from this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by komma

event items yes, golds and other items no.

This thread is about an event item; gold items are exempt from loot scaling.

Jade · Sep 23, 2008, 09:54 PM // 21:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by komma

with the raptor farm, it doesn't help that a lot of them are dying at the same time, that really hinders drop rates.

Is there a reason people keep believing this? There's a thread where it was proven that how they die doesn't matter. Check it out here.

Back on topic: So, is that animated .gif supposed to be you while crunching all the numbers for this analysis? Great job either way. Feel like tackling the drop numbers on vaetirr next? Or even the Zelnehlun Fastfoot run outside Rilohn Refuge? Keep up the good work!

komma · Sep 23, 2008, 10:02 PM // 22:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterB

Event items are excluded from this.

event items yes, golds and other items no.

illidan009 · Sep 23, 2008, 10:14 PM // 22:14

Wow you actually made 3 graphs O_o very helpful

Here's my data:
3 raptor farms, 6 grogs. 2 NM 1 HM. No graphs sorry.

chessyang · Sep 23, 2008, 10:19 PM // 22:19

To the OP, Gerg-nad

1 hour of farming Raptor VS Spectral Vaettir.

my personal finding for both spots over 1 hour of farming showed that i got 10 +/- Grog in Spectral then Raptors. I'm sorry i didn't really keep track of every drop and what not. My only proof is my "word".

I used the "You have been playing for X hours. Please take a break" as my timer. I would set up my Assassin at the town and build and Exit the game completely to restart the timer. I keep raptors to 2 min runs. Rezone if if "/age" showed 3 mins. For Spectral i keep my runs as close to 4/5 min runs as rezoning was easier then Mapping to town like the raptors. Also i did this On and off. NOT just one run. A few hours on Saturday and then a few on Sunday.

well this is just my input. not sure if helps in anyway. I did notice in both runs (Raptor or Spectral) some runs would net 8 or more and some runs as low as 3 grog.

So keep that data coming Gerg-nad. it's good to know. Thanks.

cyvil · Sep 24, 2008, 12:20 PM // 12:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by komma

with the raptor farm, it doesnt help that alot of them are dying at the same time, that really hinders drop rates.

That depends on your build, I guess. I am pretty sure that Gerg is using a sliver build, and that takes the Raptors out one at a time.

Laylat · Sep 25, 2008, 05:19 AM // 05:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by komma

event items yes, golds and other items no.

Drop rates are determined the moment you enter a zone.